By Steve Seals
Our Q2 Market Update shows that the second quarter of 2025 brought a mix of encouraging growth and bumpy market activity. Concerns around the labor market and shifting U.S. tariff policies led to lowered GDP growth estimates. With changes to deadlines, tax rates, and which imports were affected, the tariff landscape remained unpredictable, making it harder for investors to feel confident.
Markets responded with some turbulence. After the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, U.S. stocks dropped sharply. But by May and June, markets regained momentum and even moved past earlier highs. On the global front, international markets showed strength, outperforming many U.S. sectors. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. military strikes, caused some short-term concern, especially in oil and natural resources. However, a quick ceasefire helped ease investor anxiety.
Q2 Performance Review
- U.S. equity markets experienced a free-fall after April 2nd (Liberation Day) when double-digit tariffs across the board were announced by the Trump Administration, taking businesses and investors by surprise. These shockwaves were a reason the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell over 13 percent and the Dow fell nearly 11 percent from April 2nd through April 8th. U.S. equity markets recovered somewhat by May and then began an upward trend to exceed the previous highs (set in mid-February) by the end of June.
- International markets also fell in April, but recovered sooner and quicker than the U.S., with emerging markets and Asia leading the way.
- In the bond market, Treasury yields were volatile as well, due to concerns over potential inflationary pressures by the pending Trump tariff policies. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.80% early in the year, then were mixed through the rest of the quarter and had fallen to 4.39% as of June 27th.
- Pullbacks in growth expectations and amended Fed rate cuts lead to lower yields later in the quarter, particularly for lower-duration issues. The yield curve steepened as the difference between 2- and 10-year yields increased above 0.5%. The bond market is also reacting negatively to the estimated trillions in additional national debt in the proposed legislation winding its way through Congress during the second quarter. The U.S. dollar has experienced its largest six-month decline since 1973, falling over 10% against other major currencies.
Sector and Asset Class Performance
- U.S. stock markets reversed their April slide and ended the quarter with new highs. The S&P 500 gained 10.57% since March 31st and advanced 24.5% since the April 8th low. The Dow advancement was more modest, clocking in at just under 5%. Hardest hit in April was the Nasdaq Composite, but the tech-heavy index came roaring back, gaining 33% since the April 8 low and ending the quarter with an 18% gain overall.
- After leading stock indices downward in the first quarter, global growth stocks (powered once again by the Magnificent 7 Big Tech stocks) led the way for market advances in Q2 with a 17.7% gain in the quarter.
- Surprisingly, dividend stocks proved their resiliency in tough conditions, rising 6.5% as of June 20th. Value stocks lagged growth for the quarter, but still maintains the top spot for U.S. stock year-to-date.
- International bonds are the stars of the fixed-income market with U.S. Treasuries and bonds affected by the weakened dollar. Global inflation-linked bonds and investment-grade bonds led all other sectors with 4.7% and 4.4% gains, respectively. U.S. high-yield bonds gained 3.3% for the quarter while range-bound U.S. Treasuries barely budged.
- International markets continued their gains with emerging markets advancing 12.2% in the quarter. Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with the weaker dollar, helped EM gains, with Asia as the top-performing region.
- For the quarter, technology, industrials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples were top-performing sectors. Energy (oil) and healthcare were laggards, each posting more than 6% in losses.
Federal Reserve and Economic Analysis
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve (FOMC) to cut rates have fluctuated. The Fed continues to believe that inflation, while currently under control, has the potential to strengthen on the back of lingering tariff influences. The FOMC believes tariff pressures on prices have not yet worked their way into the U.S. economy and wavering Administration policy regarding tariffs with various countries is causing business and consumer uncertainty.
Currently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution regarding expectations for interest rate cuts, despite continued public criticism by the Administration, and in its June meeting, the Fed maintained its “wait and see” monetary policy, with a target range for the Fed Funds Rate still at 4.24% to 4.5%. The Fed still projects two 0.25% rate cuts later in 2025, based on updated economic projections, and downgraded its economic outlook for 2025.
The Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariff policy and its effects on the economy. Q1’s surprising 0.3% contraction in GDP surprised investors and the financial markets, and as of its June meeting, the Fed is projecting a somewhat lower GDP forecast for the year with potentially higher inflation and higher unemployment.
Investment Strategy
The uncertainty of the U.S. government’s trade and tariff policies, the falling dollar, and the pending effects of tariff inflation on economic growth (including how the Fed will respond) suggests that caution and wide diversification remain watchwords for investors. Slowing economic growth and pressure from the White House to lower rates may suggest that interest rate cuts could materialize, however, the Fed’s concern about inflation should remind everyone of the adage “Don’t fight the Fed.”
Now that tech has regained the losses of Q1 and value continues to build gains, across-the-board allocations in stocks may be a good choice for most. With international markets leading global advances, some overweight in emerging markets and inflation-linked global bonds may be considered. Fixed-income investors may look to an allocation toward high-yield and inflation-mitigating bond investments to combat any potential inflation that could creep into the economy, if tariff pressures appear in supply costs and consumer pricing.
Overall, although the economy appears resilient, there appears to be enough contradictory evidence over which direction it will take that wide diversification and investment-risk management may be wise through Q3 and the summer months.
How the Q2 Market Update Could Impact Your Portfolio
Navigating market ups and downs can feel overwhelming, especially with the volatility highlighted in our Q2 Market Update and the constantly evolving economy. If recent shifts have made you question your financial plan, this is the perfect moment to reassess.
At Seals Financial Planning & Investments, we’re here to help. Our team can review your current strategy, adjust where needed, and keep your investments aligned with your long-term goals and risk tolerance. Let’s work together to move forward with confidence. Please give us a call at (859) 230-3476 if you would like to schedule a time to meet.
About Richard Stephen (Steve) Seals
Steve Seals is owner and independent Registered Investment Advisor Representative at Seals Financial Planning & Investments VI, LLC, a financial planning services firm based in Lexington, KY. As an independent Registered Investment Advisor Representative with about two decades of experience in the investment and insurance industries, Steve’s firm is founded on getting to know each client personally, allowing him to provide sound financial advice throughout their career and into retirement. With the mission of guiding clients on the path of success, Steve is fueled by his commitment to excellence and goes the extra mile to make sure clients are fully satisfied. He believes in maintaining a positive mindset, creating partnerships with a purpose, and always striving for significant outcomes.
Born in Jenkins, Kentucky, Steve grew up with a love for basketball and serving his community. After high school, he served nine years in the United States Marine Corps, then earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting. He was eventually able to put his degree and desire to help others to work as a fiduciary financial planner. Prior to founding his own firm in 2014, Steve learned from working with Edward Jones, US Bank, University of Kentucky Federal Credit Union, and CUSO Financial. He also received his Security Series 63 and 65/66 through Keystone Financial Group, LLC, and holds various life, health, and variable insurance licenses.
Steve and his wife, Angie, have three daughters (Lauren, Peyton, and Ashton) and two grandsons (Kenyon and Kai). Steve holds a private pilot’s license, and the family enjoys sports, spending time at the lake, and traveling. To learn more about Steve, connect with him on LinkedIn.
